Egypt's non-oil sector business conditions drop to 'eight-month low,' survey says

Tuesday 03-11-2015 06:44 PM
Egypt's non-oil sector business conditions drop to 'eight-month low,' survey says

An employee counts money at a bank in Cairo September 4, 2014. REUTERS/Asmaa Waguih

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CAIRO, Nov. 3 (Aswat Masriya) - "Business conditions worsened at the quickest pace since February," a survey issued by the Emirates NBD bank on Tuesday said, citing a "renewed downturn" in Egypt's non-oil sector economy. 

The monthly survey on business conditions in the private sector, which is sponsored by the Emirati bank and conducted by financial information producer Markit, said that "solid reductions in output and new business were the main drivers of the overall decline, while further job losses also contributed" to the worsening conditions in the non-oil sector. 

"The rate of job shedding was the fastest in six months, albeit moderate overall," a statement on the survey said. 

Nationwide unemployment was 12.7 percent, as of August, according to the state's statistics agency. More than two thirds of Egypt's 89.6 million people are below the age of 30 and up to 65 percent of those are unemployed. 

Years of political turmoil have left the Egyptian economy struggling. A popular uprising in 2011 ended the rule of president Hosni Mubarak but the instability that ensued has taken a toll on tourism, which was previously one of the main sources of income for Egypt. 

"Underpinning the overall downturn were marked contractions in output and new orders during October. Activity decreased at the sharpest rate in eight months," according to the survey. 

In the Purchasing Managers’ Index, a composite indicator attached to the survey, Egypt dropped from 50.2 in September to 47.2 in October, which is below the neutral mark of 50. 

The statement said the figure was "consistent with a solid deterioration in business conditions, contrasting with the modest improvements," in previous months. 

Senior Economist at NBD Jean-Paul Pigat said that the October survey suggests that the Egyptian economy slowed down at the start of the fourth quarter of the year. He said issues that appear to be undermining the private sector include the lack of availability of foreign currency. 

The non-oil sector's "bleak outlook" was not helped by the depreciation of the Egyptian pound against the dollar, the survey said. 

Egypt has depreciated the pound multiple times this year and observers say further devaluations are inevitable, amid pressures on the state's foreign reserves. 

Analysts have previously told Aswat Masriya that the "Egyptian pound is projected to change hands at between 8.20 and 8.25 to the dollar by the end of 2015."

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